地方政府支出与私人投资：挤入还是挤出

Local Governments' Expenditure and Private Investment:Crowding-in or Crowding-out?

政府投资与私人投资的关系一直是学界关注的热点,但始终没有一致的结论。在当前调结构、稳增长阶段,重新思考两者的关系具有很强的理论和现实意义。本文以地方政府支出为主体,同时考虑了中央政府投资,分析了两级政府投资与私人投资之间的关系,对其短期效应与长期效应进行了研究。本文选取应对金融危机的政府投资特殊阶段作为研究样本,基于面板数据,建立VAR模型发现地方政府支出的增加确实对私人投资产生了一定的冲击,但其效应却非常微弱,并呈现出明显的波动和周期性特征。具体来说,在前4年主要表现为挤入效应,并在第3年达到峰值,而此后则更多地表现为挤出,且挤出与挤入的程度大致相当。最后文章给出了相应的政策含义。

The relationship between local governments＇ expenditure and private investment has been the focus of attention of academia, but consistent conclusion has never been reached. In the background of adjusting structure and stabilizing growth, it has strong theoretical and practical significance to rethink the relationship of local governments＇ expenditure and private investment. In this paper, local governments＇ expenditure was considered as the main body and the central government investment was also taken into account. This paper analyzes the relationship between central and local government investment and private invegtment, and the short-term and long-term effect. The special stage of government investment for coping with the financial crisis was selected as the sample. Based on panel data set and by using VAR model,it is found that the increase in local governments＇ expenditure does produce a certain impact on private investment,but the effect is very weak and shows significant fluctuations and cyclical characteristics. Specifically,the crowding-in effect dominated the overall effect in the first four years, and reached its peak in the third year, and since then the crowding-out effect became dominant. The degree of two effects above was even. Finally, corresponding policy implications are recommended.