中国区域房地产经济发展水平空间统计分析——全局Moran's I、Moran散点图与LISA集聚图的组合研究

Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis about the Development Level of the Regional Real Estate Economy in China—the research based on Global Moran' I,Moran scatter plots and LISA cluster map

针对中国区域房地产业发展呈现出较大差异性的现状,本研究构建出房地产经济发展水平指标体系,利用变形后的时序多指标模型原理,计算中国31个省份2000-2009年房地产经济发展水平;运用差异系数、全局Moran's I、Moran散点图和LISA集聚图,来探索中国区域房地产发展水平在空间上的分布特征,进而提出房地产发展优化途径.研究发现,中国区域房地产经济发展的分布与空间地理位置大体一致,即从东到西房地产经济发展水平依次递减;整体差异系数逐渐减小,说明区域房地产经济发展水平正逐步趋同;房地产经济发展水平一直存在显著的空间自相关和空间异质性,这呈现出近十年区域房地产经济发展水平的空间演变过程;目前中国区域房地产经济发展水平已形成较为稳定的空间格局.

Regarding the fact that there are great differences, in the development of Chinese regional real estate industry, we establish the indicator system of real estate economy development level, use the changed multiple index model theory with time series and calculate the development level of the real estate economy of 31 provinces in China from 2000 to 2009; explore the spatial distribution characteristics with the method of CV, Global Moran＇ I, Moran Scatter Plots, LISA cluster map, so we can put forward the optimization approaches about the development of real estate. It shows that the classification of the development level of real estate economy is partly similar with the spatial location, that is the development level gradually decreases from east to west; CV is decreasing, so it explains the development level of the regional real estate economy comes to convergence; there are spatial autocorrelation and significance patterns of local spatial association in the development level of the regional real estate economy, which present the process of space dynamic evolution of the development level of the regional real estate economy during the ten years; at present, the development level of the regional real estate economy has formed a stable spatial patter.