草原畜牧业对干旱的脆弱性评估——以内蒙古锡林郭勒草原为例

The vulnerability assessment of grassland livestock industry to drought:A case study in pasture of Xilingol,Inner Mongolia

脆弱性评估在气候敏感性区域和行业适应气候变化研究中非常重要。本文采用参与式评估和行动影响矩阵确定了关键的脆弱性因子;使用层次分析法构建了脆弱性评估指标框架;利用脆弱性评估模型计算了内蒙古锡林郭勒草原畜牧业对干旱的脆弱性指数。结果表明:干旱是对草原畜牧业影响最严重和最广泛的气候事件,干旱通过影响草、畜、水等因子,影响牧民生计;而干旱对人体健康的影响往往被利益相关方忽视,畜牧业基础设施差和气候波动大的区域对气候变化更脆弱,在空间尺度和时间尺度上,适应能力的提高有效降低了草原畜牧业对干旱的脆弱性,适应对策的制定首先要提高适应能力,其次是降低敏感性和暴露度;牧民对气候变化适应能力的提高旨在保障牧民生计和生活质量,可以通过提高牧民收入、改善畜牧业基础设施和补饲能力等来实现。

The vulnerability assessment is of great importance in the research of climate adaptation, especially for those climate sensitive areas and industries. This paper adopts the participating assessment and action impact matrix to identify the key vulnerability factors. Then we build up the indicator classes of vulnerability assessment employing the analytic hierarchy process methodology. With the assessment model, we calculate the vulnerability index, which reveals the vulnerability of grassland livestock industry to drought in Xilingol, Inner Mongolia. Drought is the most critical climate hazard, inciting serious and vast impact on grassland livestock industry. Drought has detrimental impacts on herdsmen’s livelihood because it deteriorates the supplies of grass, livestock, and water in pastoral areas. Unfortunately, the effect of drought on human being’s health is always ignored by stakeholders. The areas with poor husbandry infrastructure and intense climatic fluctuation are more vulnerable to climate change. The improving adaptive capacity is mainly responsible for the reduction of the vulnerability of grassland livestock industry to climate change at both spatial and temporal scales. The promotion of adaptive capacity is prior to the reductions of both sensitivity and exposure in terms of adaptation strategies to climate change. The promotion of adaptive capacity aims to guarantee herdsmen’s livelihood through increasing herdsmen’s economic income, improving the husbandry infrastructure, and enhancing the capacity of supplementary feeding.