中国房价影响因素的区域差异与时序变化研究

Research on Regional Differences and Fluctuation of Factors Affecting Real Estate Prices in China

采用二阶段局部动态调整模型分析存在市场摩擦和投机时的房价运行特征,进而通过动态面板数据模型和递归分析方法实证分析房价影响因素的区域差异和时序变化。研究结果显示:(1)人口增长并非推动房价上涨的因素;(2)收入因素在东部地区对房价影响不显著;(3)房租对房价仅在西部地区有显著影响;(4)土地成本对房价有影响,在东部影响最强而中部最弱;(5)房价惯性影响在各区域都有显著影响;(6)从时序变化来看,各区域实体经济因素对房价的影响强度都存在下降趋势,而房价惯性的影响却不断上升,反映出投机气氛浓厚使得房价对基本面偏离程度不断提高。因此,我国房地产调控需要建立区域差异化的长效机制。

This paper studys the regional differences and fluctuation of factors affecting real estate prices in China by the second stage local dynamic adjustment model, dynamic panel data model and recursive analysis. The results indicate that （ 1 ） population growth is not a significant factor; （2） the effects of income is inapparent in the east; （3） the effects of rent is apparent just in the west; （4） land price plays the most appreciable impact in the east; （5） price inertia is notable on every regions; （6） all the real economy factors＇ impacts are decreasing except of price inertia. It is included that the regional differentiations of long- term mechanism are needed, and suggestions are proposed.