建筑绿色供应链实施的仿真分析:以大连为例

Simulation and Analysis of Construction Green Supply Chain Implementation: A Case of Dalian

为分析建筑绿色供应链实施的动因、效果与支撑政策,基于系统动力学原理对建筑绿色供应链的经济、节能和减排系统进行建模、仿真实验与政策分析。在对建筑绿色供应链系统结构与政策因素分析的基础上,探讨了建筑绿色供应链系统实施的因果及反馈关系,包括供应企业、施工企业和物流成本子系统、CO2排放子系统、SO2排放子系统以及固体废弃物排放子系统;接着构建建筑绿色供应链实施的系统动力学模型,选取建筑供应链成员经济利润、CO2排放量、SO2排放量以及固体废弃物排放量为主要指标;最后以大连为例对仿真模型进行实验分析,研究建筑绿色供应链实施的主要政策因素的影响规律。结果表明模型能反映大连建筑供应链节能减排实际,政策仿真分析能够为政府监管和政策制定提供决策支持。

In order to analyze the cause, effect, and policy of the construction green supply chain implementation, the system dynamics based simulation model, simulation experiments and policies assessment were proposed about the economy, energy saving and emission reduction of construction green supply chain. Firstly, the system structure of construction green supply chain and policy reasons were analyzed. Secondly, the feedback and causal relationship of construction green supply chain implementation were studied, including supply enterprises, construction enterprises and logistics cost, carbon dioxide emissions, sulfur dioxide emissions and solid waste subsystem. Then the system dynamics model of construction green supply chain implementation was proposed where economic profit of constmction supply chain members, carbon dioxide, sulfur dioxide and solid waste discharge were selected as the major indexes. Lastly, taking Dalian for an example, the simulation confirmation of the model and the influence rules of main policy factors of construction green supply chain implementation were studied. The experimental results imply that the model can reflect the actual energy saving and emission reduction situation of Dalian conslmction supply chain and the simulation analysis can provide decision support for the government macro-control and policy formulation.