甲午战争以来东亚战略格局演变及启示——兼论120年来的中日关系及未来

The Evolution of Strategic Configuration in East Asia since the First Sino-Japanese War and Its Inspiration

从甲午战争至今,东亚经历了以"殖民、战乱、革命"为主的60年和以"和平、冷战、竞争"为主的60年。未来东亚是走向"安全、合作、统合"还是"对抗、冲突、内耗",在很大程度上取决于中日关系的前景。东亚战略格局几乎每十年发生一次重大变动。目前安倍晋三内阁的某些做法,与甲午战争前十年及伊藤博文内阁有相似之处。这预示着未来十年日本国家模式转型有脱离和平发展道路的危险,使中日矛盾再度成为东亚战略格局中的主要矛盾。中国需要深入、客观、全面地了解变化中的日本,加强协调,妥善应对。

The international relations in East Asia has undergone two sixty - year stages of history since the first Sino - Japanese War in the end of the 19th century, with the feature of the first stage is colonialism, war and revolution and the second one is peace, cold war and competition. The future of East Asia, whether its direction will be stability, cooperation and regional integration or confrontation, conflict and internal friction, depends greatly on the scenario of Sino - Japanese relations. In each decade of history, the strategic configuration in East Asia has gone through one major change. It should be noted that the policies of Abe administration right now have shared some similarities with those in the decade before the first Sino -Japanese War and under Ito administration. It implies that there is a danger for the transformation of Japan＇ s development model to run off the track of peaceful development. It is urgent for China to understand the changing Japan in an objective and comprehensive way, and properly react to it on a well -coordinated basis.