“安倍经济学”的出口促进效果评析

Analysis of the Export Promotion Effect of Abenomics

"安倍经济学"的第一支箭即"大胆的货币政策",其核心内容是仿效美国采取量化宽松政策,以达到通过日元贬值刺激出口增长进而带动经济增长的目的。从目前情况看,日元贬值并未带来日本出口的实质性增长,反而由于其进口需求弹性小,使日本的贸易收支条件不断恶化。造成这种现象的原因,除了"J曲线"效应的作用外,还因为受到美国、欧盟、中国等日本几大贸易伙伴的经济增长放缓、进口需求疲软以及中日钓鱼岛争端等因素的影响。随着美、欧、中等经济体的经济复苏,以及"安倍经济学"相关政策特别是第三支箭实施效果的逐步显现,相信通过一年左右的调整期,在国内外因素的合力作用下,"安倍经济学"带动出口增长的效果会逐步显现出来。

The core purpose of the first arrow of Abenomics, the ＂bold monetary policy＂, is to achieve export growth through the yen＇ s depreciation. According to the current situation, the depreciation of the yen does not yield substantial export growth; instead, with small elasticity of demand for import, Japan＇ s trade balance is deteriorating. Besides the influence of ＂J curve effect ＂, that phenomenon is due to the fact that economic recovery of Japan＇ s major trading partners such as U. S., EU and China remains weak, as well as the impact of disputes over the Diaoyu Island on the Sino - Japanese economic relations. With the ongoing economic recovery of U. S., EU and China, and the implementation of the second and the third arrows of Abenomics, it can be foreseen that after an adjustment period of about one year, the effect of Abenomics on export growth may gradually emerge,