有限理性假设下考虑单向替代策略的订货决策研究

Ordering Decision Considering Downward Substitution under Bounded Rationality

利用高档产品替代低档产品是销售商提高客户服务水平和增加收益的常用方法之一。在前人有关替代产品定价和订货以及替代策略研究的基础上,笔者考虑销售商为有限理性的情形,利用MNL模型刻画销售商对两种替代产品的订货行为。在有限理性假设下,笔者证明了采用单向替代策略与不采用该策略时候两种产品期望订货量之间的大小关系,归纳出单向替代效果随理性程度增加的非单调变化趋势,展示出在理性程度有限的情形下,单向替代效果要显著优于基于完全理性的预测。

Downward substitution is one of the mostly used strategies which can improve customer service and profit. Based on the previous research on downward substitution under perfect rationality, this paper considers the scenario with a boundedly rational seller, and utilizes the MNL model to depict his ordering behaviors for two sub- stitutable products. Under bounded rationality, this paper proves the magnitude relation of expected ordering quan- tities between the case with substitution and the one without substitution, and generalizes the non-monotonicity of the substitution effect with respect to the seller＇s extent of bounded rationality. It is found that the substitution effect under bounded rationality is superior to the one predicted by rationality. This paper is concluded by discussing managerial insights of the results.