西南地区中稻高温热害时空分布规律研究

Spatial and Temporal Pattern of Rice High Temperature Damage in Southwest China

中稻是我国西南地区第一大粮食作物,高温热害已成为影响该地区中稻产量和品质的主要农业气象灾害。本文应用我国西南地区70个气象站点1960-2010年气象资料,采用二项式9点滑动平均法、Morlet小波分析和反距离权重(IDW)内插法,分析了中稻抽穗扬花—灌浆乳熟期高温热害的时空变化规律。结果表明:高温热害发生程度最重的是2006年,其次是2010和1970年;热害发生次数的年代际变化为"升-降-升-降"趋势,不同等级高温热害发生次数的年际变化趋势与热害年代际总体变化趋势一致;高温热害天数呈现不同尺度的周期震荡,1960-1975年表现为5a的周期,1976-2010年存在14年左右的显著周期,是中稻高温热害的主要控制周期;高温热害高值中心在四川盆地东部,且呈向西南等方向延伸缩少。因此,本研究结果对指导西南地区防御中稻高温热害、优化中稻生产布局有一定的参考作用。

Middle-season rice is the first cereal crop in Southwest China, the high temperature damage was one agremeteorological hazard of inflecting the yield and quality of middle-season rice in this area. Based on meteorological data of 70 meteorological stations in Southwest China from 1960 -2010 ,the authors investigated the temporal-spatial patterns of high temperature damage in Southwest Region using binomial moving average, Morlet wavelet analysis and Inverse Distance Weighting（IDW）. The result show that：First, the middle-season rice injury of eating-flowering stage and filling stage mostly occurred in 2006 ,and followed by the 2010 and 1970. Second, the change of decadal occurrence times of rice high temperature damage present the variation tendency of ＇ rise-drops-rises-drops＇ ,the temporal tendencies of interannual variation for different grades were consistent with the tendencies of decadal occurrence times. Third, the annual occurrence days of rice high temperature damage fluctuated in a remarkable cyclical manner,it fluctuated in 5 years from 1960 to 1975 ,and then the annual occurrence days fluctuated significantly in 14yearn in1976 -2010 ,was the main control cycle of rice high temperature damage. The high value of annual occurrence times of rice high temperature damage on the spatial distribution pattern was located in the eastern Sichuan basin and extended decrease to southwest and other direction. All these result of this study are very useful to guide defending rice high temperature damage and optimizing the production layout.