影响我国养老保险覆盖率的因素的实证分析

Empirical Analysis towards Social Endowment Insurance Coverage in the Context of Autonomous Retirement Provision

我国已经基本建立起社会统筹的养老保险体制,但各个省市的覆盖率差别较大。通过实证分析,建立多元线性回归模型,分析近几年面板数据,结果显示社会养老保险覆盖率与教育水平显著正相关,而与家庭规模和人均可支配收入显著负相关。因此我国应扩大养老保险的覆盖面,进行养老保险征缴费率的改革,加大宣传力度,建立公平体制,保障个人账户的储蓄和收益,以提高养老保险的覆盖率。

After years of reform, China has basically established a social pooling system for endowment insurance, but the current public pension security system only covers 15% of the population,less than 20%, the lowest standard set by world＇ s labor organization.Low coverage of social endowment insurance brought difficulty to the system, which is unfavorable to the improvement of national welfare. By means of the empirical analysis research methods, panel data of 31 provinces and autonomous regions from 2003 to 2010 was used. Establishing multiple linear regression model generates results showing that the coverage of social endowment insurance is significantly in positive correlation to the level of education and family size, while in negative correlation to disposable income. On this basis, several related policy proposals can be put forward in terms of enlarging the coverage of China＇s endowment insurance system.