不同经济发展策略下流域用水结构模拟研究

Study on simulation of water structure under different strategies of economic development

南四湖流域水资源过度开发和低效使用问题已成为制约南四湖社会经济发展的主要因素,而用水结构分析和研究是实现水资源开发利用规划的前提和基础。在分析南四湖流域用水结构现状的基础上,用vensim软件建立南四湖流域用水结构的SD模型。模型以2007年为基准年,模拟时限为2007-2025年,模拟预测常规发展模式下用水结构的变化情况。并通过设定高、中、低三种不同的经济发展速度,分析不同的经济发展策略对用水结构的影响,得出流域增长速度、总需水、用水结构三者之间的响应关系。结果显示:高方案中第二产业与第三产业用水比例最高,而低方案中第二产业和第三产业用水比例最低,表明流域用水结构的变动主要受第二、第三产业用水增加量的影响。该模拟结果可以为南四湖流域及其他流域水资源管理和制定经济发展策略提供参考。

The problem of overexploitation and low efficient use of water resources in Nansihu basin has become the main factors which restrict the social economic development, while the water structure analy- sis is the precondition and foundation of water resources development and utilization. On the basis of Nansihu water structure analysis, the paper established the water structure SD model by Vensim software. The model took 2007 as the base year. Simulation time is from 2007 to 2025. The water structure change is simulated and predicted at conventional development mode. Through setting high, middle and low three speeds of economic development, the paper analyzed the impact of different economic development strategies on water structure. The results showed that the water use proportions of second industry and the tertiary industry are the highest in high program, while the water use proportions of second industry and the tertiary industry is minimum in low program. The change of water structure is affected mainly by the increase of water amount in second and tertiary industry. The simulation results can provide reference for the management of water resources and the establishment of economic development strategy in Nansihu and other watershed.