江苏太湖流域降雨径流年际变化分析

Analysis of interannual variations of rainfall runoff Jiangsu Taihu Lake basin

以江苏太湖流域(1956-2012)降雨为基础,分析江苏太湖流域径流及时空变化特征,研究该流域降雨径流的年际年内变化及两者的变化关系。结果表明:降雨径流都呈增长趋势。降雨平均每10年增加29 mm,径流平均每10年增加26 mm;降雨在年内季节分配上,夏季、冬季呈加大趋势,春季、秋季呈减小趋势;加大的降水年内分配的不均导致径流在年内分配的更加不均匀,径流集中在汛期,汛期径流量约达年径流量的84.8%,加大了某季节内的洪水、干旱风险。

Based on Jiangsu Taihu lake basin （1956 -2012） rainfall, the paper analyzed the runoff and its time and space variation in Taihu lake basin and studied the runoff of the basin of inter - annual varia- tions and the relationship between the two. The results showed that all of rainfall and runoff present growth trend. Every ten years the average rainfall increases 29mm, average runoff every ten years increase 26mm; on seasonal distribution of rainfall during the year, summer and winter show a tendency of in- crease, spring and autumn a tendency of decrease ; the increase of the unequal distribution of rainfall dur- ing the year result in more uneven distribution of runoff throughout the year. Runoff concentrated in the flood season and flood runoff amounts to about 84.8% of annual runoff, witch increase the flood and drought risk during a certain season .