气候变暖对青海高原采暖能耗的影响及预估

Study and prediction of climate warming impact on heating energy consumption in Qinghai plateau

利用1961—2010年青海高原34个气象台站逐日平均气温资料,研究了气候变暖对青海采暖期能耗的影响及预测模型,并根据未来气候情景,对未来青海高原采暖能耗进行了预估.结果表明：青海高原自1998年开始呈显著增暖趋势,气候变暖后全省平均采暖期缩短9 d,各地采暖度日数普遍减少,尤以青海高原西南部减幅最大,采暖强度明显减弱.理论上由气候变暖导致的青海高原地区采暖耗能降低4.9%~15.3%,全省平均单位面积可节约标煤量1.79 kg/m2.未来温室气体中等排放（SRESA1B）情景下,全省采暖能耗将明显减少,但仍具有较大的不确定性.

The impact of climate warming on energy consumed during heating period in Qinghai plateau during the past 50 years is studied in this paper,based on daily mean temperature data from 34 stations during 1961—2010. A model is established to predict the future heating energy consumption under medium greenhouse gas emission sce- nario（ SRESA1B）. Results show a significant warming trend took place in Qinghai plateau since 1998,and the av- erage heating periods decreased by 9 days for the whole province. The heating degree-day decreased in all parts,es- pecially in southwestern part of the province,with evident decline in heating strength. Theoretically,the heating strength decrease brought by climate warming is assumed to be 4. 9%-15. 3%,while the average energy saving in the whole province is 1. 79 kg / m2in standard coal. Under the medium greenhouse gas emission scenario（ SRESA1B）,the energy consumed during heating periods in future is predicted to decline obviously in Qinghai plateau,yet with great uncertainty.