基于贝叶斯算法的220kV变压器故障检修成本模型分析

Bayesian econometrics method based maintenance cost model for 220 kV transformers

针对电力网络中220kV变压器运行现状和其所处的故障检修阶段,根据全寿命周期成本管理理念,基于贝叶斯计量经济学理论和计量经济学软件WinBUGS,建立了220kV变压器的失效故障维修成本优化模型.该模型充分考虑到电气设备经济成本活动的不确定性和特殊性,能够较为合理地反映出变压器寿命周期内的检修故障阶段所对应的费用.并结合福建某变电站220kV变压器的运行情况,验证了该模型的可行性与适用性.

According to the operation situation and the corrective maintenanc transformers, a new failure and break down caused maintenance model was the theory of Bayesian econometrics and the WinBUGS software, which can management of transformers. With full consideration of the uncertainty and t conomic activities, the model could reflect the different process costs of 220 the maintenance period reasonably. This model has been applied in a 220 kV e process of 220 kV established ＇based on realize life cycle cost he particularity of e- kV transformers in substation in Fujian Province, and the results verified its effectiveness and practical applicability.