基于VAR模型的货币量与房地产价格实证分析

Empirical analysis of the currency amount and real estate price based on the VAR model

基于向量自回归(VAR)模型,用时间序列分析方法对影响房地产价格的因素进行了格兰杰因果检验、协整检验,以及影响房价的因素的脉冲响应,分析了货币政策目标中的货币量调节对房地产价格的影响,得出货币量与房地产价格之间存在协整关系,我国房地产价格上涨可以归因于货币发行量的超常增加。基于房价波动的结论提出调整我国货币政策的建议。

By using VAn model and time-series analyses, Granger causality test, cointegration test and impulse response for the factors affecting the real estate price are made. Theimpacts of currency amount adjustment, one of the intermediary targets of monetary policy, on the real estate price is analyzed. It can be concluded that there exists a cointegration relationship between the amount of money and real estate price. The supernormal increase of the real estate price can be attributed to the increase of currency amount. Based on the fluctuation of housing price adjustment some proposals in China＇ s monetary policy adjustment are put forward.