企业家信心与通货膨胀——基于省级动态面板数据模型的分析

Entrepreneur Confidence and Inflation:An Analysis Based on Dynamic Panel Data Model

以2004—2010年中国30个省市、自治区(除西藏外)的面板数据为样本,通过构建动态面板数据模型,利用系统GMM估计实证研究了企业家信心对我国通货膨胀的影响。研究结果表明,企业家信心指数与通货膨胀呈正相关,即正向的企业家信心冲击会导致通货膨胀的上升。因此,政府在制定财政政策和货币政策时,应该考虑到企业家信心对通货膨胀的影响。

Based on panel data of 30 provinces,municipality and autonomous regions （except Tibet） of China from 2004 to 2010, the influence of entrepreneur confidence on inflation is analyzed by using dynamic panel data model and system GMM. The result demonstrates that entrepreneur confidence present the positive proportion with inflation, which means that positive entrepreneur confidence will cause inflation rising. The government should take account of the influence of entrepreneur confidence on inflation when making financial policy and monetary policy.