我国全体居民消费水平的动态分析——基于1953-2011年时间序列数据

A Dynamic Analysis of the Consumption Level of Residents in China——Based on time-series data from 1953 to 2011

消费水平是居民幸福生活的一项重要指标,全体居民消费水平往往受到许多因素影响。将居民消费水平作为被解释变量,根据经验引入就业人员平均工资、居民人民币储蓄存款年底余额、人均GDP、人口数四个因素,通过做回归分析对异方差性、多重共线性等方面进行探讨,发现全体居民消费水平受人均GDP、就业人员平均工资和总人口数的影响相对显著,而受居民人民币储蓄存款年底余额的影响相对较弱。

Consumption level, an important index for people＇s happy life, is often affected by many factors. In this paper, Chinese residents＇ consumption level is regarded as explained variable, and the average wage of the employed, the year-end balance of deposits, GDP per capita and the population size are introduced as explaining variables based on experience. Through regression analysis, the heteroscedasticity, multicollinearity, ere are analyzed. Results show that residents＇ consumption level is significantly influenced by GDP per capita, the average wage and the total population, whereas the year- end balance of deposits has a weak effect on the consumption level of residents.