我国农民工市民化最佳时间的判定与实证分析——基于人口城市化收益最大的视角

Judgement and empirical analysis on the optimum citizenization time of the rural migrant workers

人口城市化的核心是市民化,市民化的主体是农民工。在我国快速推进的城市化进程中,如何获得人口城市化的最大收益,值得我们深入研究。基于此,将人口城市化分为两个阶段,通过构建数理模型,求出市民化最佳开始时间的判断标准,并在此标准下进行理论分析。结合我国实际情况,通过实证研究得出结论:我国市民化开始时间推迟,导致市民化收益较低。

the core of urbanization is citizenization, with the main body of migrant workers＇ citizenization. It is worthwhile to study how to get the maximal gaining in the fast urbanization of China. This paper divides the issue in two parts. The first part, through constructing mathematical models, tries to find the standard determining the optimal urbanization time, and makes the theoretical analysis under the standard. The second part makes an empirical conclusion based on the condition in China： the urbanization begins late in China, which leads to a low gaining. Thus the paper proposes a differentiation policy of citizenization, optimizing the structure of financial expenditure, and improving the official examination system.