我国交通基础设施建设对物流产业发展的影响研究

Study on Influence of Chinese Traffic Infrastructure Construction on Logistic Industry Development

选取我国1980—2010年货运量、铁路营业里程和公路里程数据,运用协整理论对我国交通基础设施建设与物流产业发展规模之间的关系进行了分析,利用ADF检验方法、Johansen检验方法对时间序列进行了单位根检验和协整检验,运用向量误差修正模型分析了3个变量之间的动态关系。研究结论表明:在短期内,铁路营业里程、公路里程与货运量之间具备显著的正相关关系;从长期看,我国铁路营业里程、公路里程和货运量之间存在稳定均衡关系,并且铁路营业里程增加对物流产业发展的促进效果比公路里程增加对物流发展的效果更为明显。

Selecting the data of freight traffic volume, railway route length and highway mileage in 1980-2010, by using cointegration theory, the relationship between Chinese traffic infrastructure construction and scale of logistic industry development was analyzed. Through using ADF test method and Johansen test method, the unit root test and cointegration test were taken on time series, and by using vector error correction model, the dynamic relationship among the three variables was analyzed. The study result shows： notable positive correlation relationship was existed among railway route length, highway mileage and freight traffic volume in the short-term; and stable balance relationship was existed among the three in the long-term; the promotion effect of increase^of railway route length on logistic industry development are more obvious than that of highway mileage on logistic development.