不同产出缺口界定与估算的新方法:一个结构性表述

Definitions of Different Output Gap and New Estimation Method:A Structural Interpretation

文章采用结构方程方法,通过构建动态随机一般均衡模型对效率产出缺口、自然律产出缺口以及基于劳动力市场的GGL产出缺口进行了估算,并在此基础上比较了基于结构方程方法估算的产出缺口与基于单变量或单方程方法估算的产出缺口。研究发现,由于结构方程方法完整的反映出变量之间相互作用的机制,进而使得对于产出缺口的估算而言,结构方程方法可能优于单变量或单方程方法。

This paper considers a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium framework to estimate the efficient output gap, natural output gap and GGL output gap, and then compares the various output gaps calculated by structural method with HP filter, CF filter and regression analysis method. And the result shows that, since the structural method has depicted the transmission channel of different variables well, then for the efficient level of estimation output gap, the structural method may be better than univariate method or single equation method.