海河流域1961年-2010年极端气温与降水变化趋势分析

Trend Analysis of Variations in Extreme Precipitation and Temperature in the Hai River Basin from 1961 to 2010

以海河流域30个气象基准站1956年-2010年气温和降水日值资料为基础,选取12个表征极端气候变化指标,分析了该流域极端气温与降水的变化趋势。结果表明:海河流域极端高温的强度、频度和持续时间均有较强的增加趋势;极端低温的强度、频度显著降低,反映出流域整体增温的气候变化背景;流域短历时极端降水强度有增大趋势,年极端降水的发生频次降低,连续湿日表现出一定的减少趋势,而连续干日在近几十年来有一定的增加趋势,区域呈现弱干化趋势。从年代际变化特征看,20世纪90年代以来,年极端高温事件和短历时强降水事件发生趋于频繁,而长持续性降水事件的降水量减少。海河流域整体的暖干趋势以及降水集中的趋势,将对农业生产、水资源开发利用造成不利影响,同时,短历时极端强降水事件的增加可能加剧局地的山洪灾害和城市内涝的风险。

Based on the daily data of precipitation and temperature of 30 basic meteorological stations in the Hai River Basin from 1956 to 2010,12 indices characterizing the extreme climate change were selected to analyze the variation trends of extreme precipitation and temperature in the Hai River Basin. The results showed that （1） the intensity, frequency, and duration of ex- treme high temperature increase while the intensity and frequency of extreme low temperature decrease significantly in the Hal River Basin, which can reflect the overall increasing temperature trend in the basin; （2） the intensity of short-time extreme pre- cipitation increases while the frequency of heavy precipitation decreases. The duration of consecutive wet clays decreases, while the duration of consecutive dry days increases in recent decades, which suggests that the basin becomes a little dry; and （3） the frequencies of annual extreme high temperature and short-time extreme precipitation increase since 1990s, while the frequency of long-time precipitation decreases. The trend of warm and dry conditions and short-time precipitation can have negative impacts on the agricultural production and water resources development in the Hal River Basin. Meanwhile, the increasing of short-time extreme precipitation may exacerbate the risk of local flood disaster in the mountainous area as well as urban waterlogging.