我国大米产业波动的来源及冲击路径

Chinese Rice Industry Fluctuation: Supply and Demand Shocks

通过采用修正后的两变量结构向量自回归模型考察我国大米产业波动来源,并利用脉冲响应函数分析供求冲击对大米价格和产出的传导路径。结果发现:大米产业70%的价格波动来源于供给冲击的作用;短期内供给冲击占据产出波动的主导地位,而长期内需求冲击解释54%左右的价格波动;总体而言,供给冲击在中国大米价格波动中具有主导作用。因此,政府应对大米产业波动及时调控,防止由于政策调控的滞后效应,导致价格与产出波动放大的结果。

This paper analyzes the supply and demand shocks on Chinese rice industry using revised two variables SVAR model.The results implies that （1）whatever in the long-term or short-term,more than 70% of the price fluctuations can be attributed to the impact of supply shocks;（2）for the output volatil-ity,in the short-term,demand shocks are almost equivalent to supply shocks explaining output variabili-ty,while in the long-term,demand shocks account for about 54%;（3）Overall,supply shocks in the price fluctuations of Chinese rice industry play a dominant role.The above conclusion has important mac-roeconomic policy implications.