经济结构与贸易失衡之间关系的理论辨析——西方经典贸易理论与马克思主义理论的比较

Theoretical Analyze between Economic Structure and Trade Imbalances——A Comparison Western Classical Trade Theory with Marxist Theory

本文以发达国家贸易状态的长期数据为基础,对"浮动汇率会实现贸易自动均衡"的理论提出质疑,并在比较马克思与西方经典贸易理论的基础上,根据马克思资本积累和扩大再生产理论,提出了从一国内部经济结构角度认识贸易状态的观点。在主要资本主义国家贸易状态历史事实的基础上概括出了工业化市场国家必然显现出的两个基本特征:一是对投资从而对高储蓄率的依赖,二是对外需的依赖。基础数据和计量分析的结果支持这些结论。这一理论认识对美英持续贸易逆差和日本、德国和中国持续的贸易顺差提供了一个内部经济结构的解释,对中国经济发展和对外贸易也具有政策意义。

In this paper, we base on a long-term trade data of developed country, ques- tioning the ＂floating exchange rate will automatically achieve trade balance＂ theory. Af- ter comparing Marx and Western classical trade theory, we find that economic structure is the key point to understand trading. According to the logic of Marx＇s ＂Capitalism is production for production＂ and the fact of capitalist countries, we summarized the two basic characteristics of industrialized market countries： First, investment dependent on high savings rate, and second, industrialized market countries dependent on external demand. The data and the results of measurement support these conclusions. This the- ory give an economic structure channel to understand U.S. and British continued trade deficit and Japan, Germany and China＇s continued trade surplus. It also gives policy im- plications to China＇s economic development and foreign trade.