泰安市地下水变化趋势及动态预测研究

THE STUDY ON GROUNDWATER CHANGE TREND AND DYNAMIC PREDICTION OF TAI'AN CITY

在泰安市地下水位动态变化概述的基础上,利用55眼测井实测资料,分析了泰安市13年的水位变化情况。对观测井1978~2011年的地下水埋深年变差系列值和相应的年降水量开展一元回归分析,建立一元线性回归方程式,进行了年降水量影响预测;对东平县大清河以南的地区采用典型区回归预测;对典型区建立了数学模型,利用三维地下水有限差分计算软件MODFLOW进行地下水数值模拟,实测值与模拟水位过程线对比,进行了典型区模型预测。

Based on the dynamic change of groundwater level in Tai＇an City, by using 55 observation - wells＂ measured data, the water level change in 13 years of Tai^n was analyzed. For the groundwater depth of observation wells＂ annual variation in series value from 1978 to 2011 and the corresponding annual precipitation, mathe- matical regression analysis was carried out, one -place linear regression equation was set up, and the influence of annual precipitation was forecast. ; for the southern area of Da Qing River in Dong Ping County typical zone regression prediction was used. ; and mathematical model was established for the typical region, then numerical simulation of groundwater was made by using Three - dimensional finite difference calculation software of ground- water named MODFLOW, made comparison between the measured values and simulated water level hydrograph, and made the prediction of typical region model successfully.