摘要
为了探讨影响房价的因素,选取2005年1月—2011年12月MPI、银行贷款利率、M2月度数据,运用VAR模型、脉冲响应函数、方差分解方法研究这些因素对房价的影响。研究结果显示:商品房销售价格指数、MPI、银行贷款利率和M2之间存在有长期均衡关系,且三因素对房价的波动有一定的影响。通过脉冲响应函数分析,M2和银行贷款利率对房价波动产生负向影响,而MPI产生的是正向影响。方差分解的结果说明,房价的波动很大程度上是MPI的波动引起的。
In order to investigate the factors that affect house price,the MPI from January 2005 to December 2011, bank lending rates,money supply monthly data are selected to analyze their effect on real estate price by using VAR model,impulse response functions and variance decomposition method. The results show that real estate price index,MPI,bank lending rates and the money supply have long-term equilibrium relationship,the real estate price fluctuation is influenced by other three factors. The impulse response function analysis indicates that money supply and bank lending rate negatively affect the commercial real estate price fluctuations,and MPI generates the positive effect. Variance decomposition results indicate that the volatility of real estate sales prices is mainlyy vaused by the fluctuations of MPI.
出处
《石家庄经济学院学报》
2013年第6期24-27,共4页
Journal of Shijiazhuang University of Economics
关键词
房价
VAR
脉冲响应函数
方差分解
house price
VAR
Impulse response function
variance decomposition
