基于VAR模型的城镇化与经济增长的动态研究——以江苏省为例

A VAR-based Dynamic Analysis on the Urbanization and Economic Growth: A Case Study of Jiangsu Province

运用江苏1990年—2011年城镇化率和GDP年度时间序列数,建立反映城镇化水平和经济增长动态关系的向量自回归(VAR)模型,在VAR模型的基础上,运用脉冲响应函数分析城镇化发展与经济增长之间的动态影响。结果显示,城镇化水平对经济增长有积极的作用,而经济增长对城镇化的贡献却不是很大;经济增长主要受上期经济水平以及上上期城镇化水平的影响,当前城镇化发展水平滞后于经济增长。因此,应甩掉GDP经济指挥棒,推进城镇化健康有序发展,改革和完善土地制度,调集更多的资源用于城镇化发展,走城镇化优先发展并依靠城镇化带动经济发展的路子。

Based on the data from Jiangsu during 1990-2011,the VAR model and impulse response function are used to analyze the urbanization and economic growth of Jiangsu province. Result shows that the level of urbanization has a positive effect on economic growth,but economic growth has no significant effect on urbanization. Economic growth is mainly influenced by the urbanization level of the previous period,and the urbanization level lags behind the economic growth. We should get rid of the GDP economic baton,promote the healthy and orderly urbanization,land reform and improve,mobilize more resources for the development of urbanization. Economic development should give priority to the development of urbanization and rely on urbanization economic development.