人口老龄化、经济增长与养老保险——基于辽宁省的实证分析

Population aging,Economic Growth and Endowment Insurance: An Empirical Analysis for Liaoning Province

利用1991年—2011年的有关经济数据,使用经济计量的方法对辽宁省养老保险支出与人均GDP、65岁及以上老人占比之间的关系进行数量分析,结果显示,辽宁省养老保险支出占GDP的比例低于合理的支出水平,人口老龄化对养老保险支出的影响大于人均GDP的增长对养老保险支出水平的影响,未来较长一段时间辽宁省将继续面临养老保险入不敷出的严峻形势,并在分析的基础上提出了相应的政策建议。

Based on the economic data（1991-2011） of Liaoning province,this paper quantitatively analyses the relation among endowment insurance,the ratio of aged people and economic growth. Results show that the ratio of endowment insurance and GDP is lower than the reasonable level,and the impact of population aging on endowment insurance is bigger than the impact of economic growth on endowment insurance. In addition,based on the research conclusion,this paper puts forward some suggestions about relative policy.