美联储百年沧桑：目标、框架与可信度

Centennial Vicissitudes of Fed: the Goal of Policy, Policy Framework andAccountability and Communication

在美联储成立百年之际,现任美联储主席伯南克系统回顾了过去100年中美联储在政策目标、政策框架、可信度和沟通方面的变革。成立初期,美联储以维护金融稳定为目标的政策框架主要受实质票据学说和金本位制度的影响。大萧条时期,促进就业和价格稳定逐渐成为美联储的新目标。大通胀和大通缩时期,获得货币政策独立性的美联储控制通胀的能力逐步成熟。大稳健时期,货币政策目标和框架更加清晰,货币政策透明度逐渐提高。金融危机以来,维持金融稳定上升到与货币政策同等重要的位置,货币政策透明度明显改善,预期管理日益重要。未来,中央银行的理念和实践还将不断变革。

To recognize the Federal Reserve＇ s centennial, Bernanke discussed the evolution over the past 100 years of three key aspects of Federal Reserve policymaking： the goals of policy, the policy framework, and account- ability and communication. At the beginning of the Fed, the goal was the preservation of financial stability, which was mainly influenced by the so-called real bills doctrine, as well as the fact that the United States was on the gold stan- dard. In the Great Depression, both maximum employment and stable prices became the Fed＇ s dual mandate gradually. In the Great Inflation and subsequent disinflation, the Fed regained its policy independence and responded more vigor- ously to inflation. In the Great Moderation, central banks around the world reached consensus on the value of commu- nication and transparency in attaining monetary policy objectives. After the financial crisis, maintaining the financial stability became as important as strengthening the monetary policy. In the future, both research and experience of the Fed and other central banks will keep pace with the times.