东亚汇率选择与“人民币集团”的形成

Southeast Asia's Choice of Exchange Rate and the Formation of “RMB Group”

本文研究了最近10年东南亚国家的汇率政策和汇率变动趋势,并且估算了东南亚国家货币篮子中的主要货币的权重。结果显示,在东南亚国家的汇率政策调整中,人民币已经变得比美元更加重要。这主要是由东南亚国家自身的偏好决定的,而其偏好则取决于国内政治经济关系及其在国际贸易体系中的地位。

This paper studies the exchange rate policy and its changing trend over the past ten years in Southeast Asia, and estimates the weight of major currencies in the currency basket of Southeast Asia countries. The result shows that as the exchange policy of Southeast Asia changes, RMB has become more important than US dollar. This is main- ly determined by the preference of Southeast Asia countries, whereas their preference depends on their domestic politi- cal and economic relations and its status in the international trade system.