BCC_CSM1.1模式对我国气温的模拟和预估

Simulation and Projection of Temperature in China with BCC_CSM1.1 Model

利用我国541个测站1960—2010年气温资料以及国家气候中心参加第5次耦合模式比较计划（CMIP5）的气候系统模式BCC_CSM1．1的历史试验和年代际试验结果，评估了该模式对我国近50年气温变化特征的模拟能力，对模式的年代际试验结果进行了误差订正，并给出未来10～20年我国气温变化的预估。结果表明：历史试验和年代际试验均模拟出了与观测较为一致的增暖趋势，但均没有观测资料的增暖幅度大。其中，历史试验比年代际试验更接近于观测。年代际尺度上，模式对我国东部的模拟要好于西部；年际尺度上，模式的高预报技巧区在我国西北地区西南部和东部、西南地区北部。历史试验和年代际试验对我国气温空间场整体分布模拟较好，误差订正后的年代际试验结果对空间气温场的模拟有更好把握。相对于观测资料得到的1960--2010年0．27℃／10a的增温速率，模式预估我国2011—2030年平均气温变化速率达到0．48℃／10a，上升趋势更加明显。

Inter-annual and inter-decadal variability are two kinds of different timescale variability existing at the same time in climate system found in previous studies. Affected by the global warming, the inter-decadal signal of cli- mate change becomes more and more significant. The next 10 to 30 years of climate change, namely inter-decadal time scales climate change and their impacts on the global environment, society and economic deyelopment, draw more and more attention. Climate change features of inter-decadal scale become one of the most important content of the IPCC ARS. The 10 to 30 years~ timescale of inter-decadal forecast experiment which is listed as one of the main experiment content has joined the 5th Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project （CMIP5）. More in-depth re- search will be carried out on predictability of inter-decadal timescale. The air temperature data of 541 stations in China from 1960 to 2010 as well as the CMIP5 historical and decadal experiment results of Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model （BCC_CSM1.1） are uti- lized to evaluate the simulation ability of the model. The model results are interpolated to the correspond- ing latitude and longitude of 541 stations use bilinear interpolation method. Whether the pattern of region- al prediction ability could improve by the decadal experiment of BCC_CSM1.1 which initialed the SST （sea surface temperature） is discussed. Bias corrections to the decadal experiment results are done and the pre- liminary projection of the changes of the air temperature of China for the next 10--20 years is presented. Results show that both historical and decadal experiments can capture the warming trend in accordance with the observations, but the warming tendency of the experiments are less significant than those of ob- servations. Results of historical experiments are slightly better than those of decadal experiments of the model. On the inter-decadal timescales, simulations in the eastern part of China are better than those in the western part of China. On the inter-annual timeseales, the high prediction skills are located in the southwestern and eastern parts of northwest region, and southwest of China. Distributions of temperature in China are well simulated in both of historical and decadal experiments, such as the spatial correlation co- efficients of 0.9 or above. After bias correction, results of decadal experiments are much better. By the corrected result of decadal experiments, the result of temperature spatial distribution simulation is better. The model projects that the rising rate of the mean temperature of China will be 0.48~C/10 a during 2011-- 2030, which is more significant than the warming rate of 0.27~C/10 a during 1960--2010 on the basis of observations. And the forecast results of the model show that the air temperature of China during 2001-- 2010 grows more slowly and fluctuate less compared with the period of 2011--2030.