国际原油价格波动对我国宏观经济增长的影响

The Impact of International Crude Oil Price Volatility on China's Macro-economic Growth

基于Brent现货价格以及我国实际GDP增长率的季度数据,本文利用向量自回归(VAR)模型构建与估计、Granger因果关系检验,以及冲击响应函数估计方法检验国际原油价格波动与我国宏观经济增长之间的关联性问题。研究表明:在不同滞后阶数的情况下,Brent现货价格自身的影响作用发生了显著的改变,对我国实际GDP增长率的影响作用也都发生了显著改变;在不同滞后阶数的情况下,我国实际GDP增长率对Brent现货价格的影响作用发生了显著改变,Brent现货价格对我国实际GDP增长率的影响作用也都发生了显著改变;在Brent现货价格与我国实际GDP增长率序列之间存在较为显著的单向Granger影响关系,即Brent现货价格能够显著影响我国实际GDP增长率,Brent现货价格正向冲击会对我国实际GDP增长率产生显著影响。

Based on the Brent spot price and quarterly data of real GDP growth rate, this article uses vector auto regres- sion （VAR） model building and estimation, Granger causality test and impulse response function estimation method to test the relationship between international crude oil price volatility and China＇s macroeeonomic growth. that： in the case of different lag orders, Brent spot price itself influences the occurrence of a significant change, the in- fluence on China＇s real GDP growth rate has also undergone a significant change. In the case of different lag orders, the influence of China＇s real GDP growth rate on the Brent spot price has undergone a significant change, Brent spot price in- fluence on China＇s real GDP growth has also undergone a significant change ; there is a more significant one - way Grang- er causality relationship between the Brent spot price time series and real GDP growth rate sequence, nanlely, Brent spot price can significantly affect our real GDP growth rate, and Brent spot price positive impact has significant effects on China＇s real GDP growth rate.