三江源沱沱河气象站53年来气候演变规律分析

Climate evolution law of Tuotuo River meteorological station in Sanjiangyuan region during last 53 years

三江源区是长江、黄河及澜沧江的发源地和我国淡水资源的重要补给地，深刻掌握该区域的气候及水循环演变规律对三江源区的保护工作意义重大。利用三江源源沱沱河气象站1959～2011年逐日降水量、气温资料，分析了该站降水量及气温演变趋势、突变情况及波动周期。结果表明：①1959～2011年间沱沱河站年降水量呈弱增加趋势，并在2006年前后发生了增加趋势较显著的突变，同时存在着大约5，15a和28a三个较明显的波动周期；②年平均气温基本呈增长趋势，并在2003年前后呈现显著增加的突变现象。根据以上分析，初步判断2020年前沱沱河站气温将继续显著升高，降水有可能进入一个丰水期。

Sanjiangyuan region, an important supply of freshwater resources in China, is the origin of Yangtze River, Yellow River and Lancang River. Thoroughly mastering the region~ climate and water cycle evolution law has a great significance to the environmental protection of the region. Based on the daily rainfall and temperature data of Tuotuo River meteorological station in Sanjiangyuan region from 1959 to 2011, the evolution trend, sudden changes and fluctuation period of precipitation and tempera- ture were analyzed. The results show that ： （ 1 ） During the last 53 years, precipitation has been increasing weakly in this region, especially a sudden change with upward trend was found in 2006, and there are three obvious fluctuation periods of 5 -year, 15 - year and 28 - year. （2） Annual mean temperature shows a steady increasing trend, one sudden change of a significant in- crease near 2003. Based on the above analysis, we make a pre - judgment that the temperature will continue to rise, and the pre- cipitation is likely to enter a wet period before 2020.