从“安倍经济学”的前景看中国经济面临的挑战与机遇

Prospects of "Abenomics" and Challenges and Opportunities for China

日本经济"失去的二十年"是由其传统的经济发展战略与模式等深层次问题累积而成的,虽然"安倍经济学"试图通过前所未有的超级量化宽松的货币政策等措施予以清算,但日本经济发展中长期积累的诸多问题如劳动人口的巨大变化等结构性因素倘若得不到解决,仅以宏观经济政策特别是货币政策应对,是于事无补的。因此,日本经济发展前景具有相当大的不确定性。在一定意义上讲,今后的日本经济无论如何调整,都已经不再是寻找新起点的过程,而是寻找新的均衡点的过程。现阶段日本经济的调整,从短期来看会对中国的对日贸易、FDI流入、金融环境稳定及总体经济增长带来一些负面效应,但长期而言也会为中国经济的结构调整与发展提供有价值的启示与新的机遇。

Japan' s 'lost two decades' is mainly rooted in its traditional economic development strategies.Although through 'Abenomics',it tries to resort to monetary policy,such as unprecedented quantitative easing,to stimulate the economy,if it cannot solve the structural problems,such as demographic change,the situation will not improve much.Therefore,the prospects of the Japanese economy remain blurred.In a sense,the future of Japanese economy is not a process to find a new starting point of economic growth,but one to find a new equilibrium point.In the short term,its economic adjustment will have negative effect on China's export to Japan,FDI inflow,financial stability and overall economic growth.In the longer term,however,it will provide valuable implications and opportunities for China' s economic restructuring and development.