摘要
新世纪以来,新兴经济体与发达经济体的增长趋势脱钩以国际收支失衡加剧为背景,难以持续。危机之后,欧洲和日本的复苏疲弱、美国的再工业化以及以跨太平洋伙伴关系协定(TPP)和跨大西洋贸易与投资伙伴关系协定(TTIP)为代表的世界贸易规则重塑,都使这种趋势脱钩模式更加难以为继。中国当前的国内经济改革、对外走出去的战略,将在需求端为其他新兴经济体提供新的机会,在供给端通过直接投资改善其他新兴经济体的潜在增速水平。因此,中国将有望在新兴经济体与发达经济体的良性趋势脱钩中扮演关键的历史性角色。在此过程中,中国的经济实力将向更为具体的经济影响力转变,进而提升对国际经济规则的局部乃至全局的制定与协调能力,并从中获得实际利益。
The de-trending of emerging markets and developed economies in the 21 st century relies solidly on global imbalance and thus is unsustainable.In the post-crisis era,such de-trending has become more unsustainable due to the weak demand from major developed countries and the change of their growth strategies.The US,among other developed economies,is establishing new rules in the international trade and investment regime by negotiating TPP and TTIP,among others.China can play a significant role in the de-trending process.From the demand side,China' s domestic reform and large economic scale would provide a large market for developing countries.From the supply side,its 'going-global' strategy would boost its ODI in the emerging markets and help raise the potential growth rate for those countries.If China can properly play its role in the process of the de-trending,it will hopefully balance its domestic economic reform and re-shaping of external environment as it promotes inclusive development.During that process,China will see its economic influence grow and benefit from a re-shaped and more balanced set of international economic rules.
出处
《国际经济评论》
CSSCI
北大核心
2014年第1期110-122,7,共13页
International Economic Review
基金
国家社科基金重点项目“未来十年世界经济格局演变趋势及我国发展战略调整研究”(12AZD054),国家社会科学基金重点项目“二十国集团面临的全球治理重点问题研究”(11AGJ001)
中国社科院创新工程重大课题“南北合作、南南合作与全球经济治理”(2014YCXZD008),中国社科院创新工程重大课题“新兴经济体与国际经济新秩序”(2013YZDZB008)
