我国市郊铁路客流特征分析及需求预测

Analysis of Suburban Railway Passenger Flow Characteristics and Demand Forecast in China

研究目的:市郊铁路正逐步成为一种联系城市和郊区、城市和城市的满足长距离、大运量运输要求的重要交通运输方式。客流特征分析及需求预测对于市郊铁路规划和运营具有十分重要的作用。本文以北京市郊铁路S2线为研究对象,分析了我国市郊铁路的客流特征和客流需求预测方法,旨在为市郊铁路的长远发展打下基础。研究结论:(1)我国市郊铁路具有早晚高峰明显、节假日客流量高的时间分布特征,空间分布上具有上下行客流密度分布不均衡、客流集中度较高的特征;(2)市郊铁路客流在特殊时段内具有波动性和随机性,分布并不均衡,适合采用灰色GM(1,1)模型进行客流量预测,对北京S2线的实例研究取得了较高的预测精度和满意的预测结果;(3)本文对各城市市郊铁路客流量中长期预测的研究工作有一定的参考价值,可为市郊铁路的建设发展提供一定的理论支撑。

Research purposes： Suburban railway is gradually becoming a link of cities to suburbs and cities to cities. As an important transportation mode, it meets long- distance, large -capacity transport requirements. Characteristic Analysis and passenger demand forecast have very important roles for the suburban railway planning and operations. We use Beijing Suburban Railway Line $2 as the research object and analyze the characteristics of suburban railway passenger and passenger demand forecasting methods. They lay the foundation of the suburban railway for a long - term development. Research conclusions： （1） Suburban railway has time distribution characteristics on morning and evening peak and highly holiday traffic, spatial distribution characteristics on unbalanced uplink and downlink traffic density and highly concentrated passenger flow. （2） In a special period, suburban railway passenger flow has volatility and randomness. It is suitable for the gray GM （ 1,1 ） model to predict passenger flow. In the study on Beijing $2 line, we achieved high prediction accuracies and satisfaction predictions. （3） The paper has a certain reference value for long term forecasting research work of the city % suburban railway traffic. It also provides a theoretical basis on the suburban railway construction.