摘要
使用不同版本的《中国统计年鉴》数据分析、预测我国住房市场的供求状况存在较大偏差。以住房和城乡建设部的数据为基础推算我国城镇人均住房面积的时序可比数据,并根据Gompertz模型预测未来我国住宅市场的供求关系,结果显示,自2001年以来,城镇人均住房面积不增反降;在相当长的时间内,我国房地产市场将处于供不应求的态势,推动房价上升的压力长期存在;只有当城镇化比例达到75%以后,商品房建设的速度才会有所减缓。
There are two different data from the China Statistical Yearbook for the same year. And we will get the various conclusions by using the different statistics to analysis the trend of China＇s housing supply and demand. According to the data from the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development of the RPC and the Gompertz model, we find that firstly, since 2001, the housing area per capita in urban has not increased but decreased. Secondly, the short supply situation of China＇s housing market will be continuous in the long-term, and the pressure of housing price will exist for a long time. Thirdly, only when the urbanization reaches over 75% can the speed of commercial housing construction grow slowly.
出处
《改革》
CSSCI
北大核心
2014年第1期33-42,共10页
Reform
基金
国家社会科学基金重大招标项目"国家统计数据质量管理研究"(批准号:09&ZD040)
国家社会科学基金重点项目"我国居民收入分配份额的统计测算与提升路径研究"(批准号:13ATJ005)
关键词
人均住房面积
商品房销售面积
住房供求关系
the per capita housing area, commercial housing sales area, housing relationship of supply and demand
