中国经济的包容性增长:基于包容性全要素生产率视角的解释

Inclusive Growth in China:A Perspective from the Change of Inclusive Total Factor Productivity

本文运用Malmquist-Luenberger指数和Hicks-Moorsteen指数对1980-2011年中国省际的包容性全要素生产率(TFP)进行了估算、比较和分析。结果表明:包容性TFP比传统TFP小得多,效率变化、技术进步亦都有不同程度的下降,即不考虑收入差距大大高估了中国的TFP。东部地区包容性TFP增长率比中西部高,表明中国包容性经济增长存在区域失衡,经济增长的包容性仍比较低下,而且东部比中部、西部的经济增长更具包容性。采用面板数据模型对影响中国包容性TFP增长的因素进行回归分析,结果显示:外资利用、要素结构、城乡收入差距缩小、城镇化、地区经济的开放度和基础设施投资都与包容性TFP增长有正相关关系,经济发展水平、产业结构与包容性TFP增长有负相关关系。最后,本文在上述研究的基础上得出一些有益的政策启示和借鉴。

In this paper, we estimated and analyzed inclusive TFP of Chinese provinces from 1980 to 2011 by Malmquist-Luenberger index and Hicks-Moorsteen index. The results show that the inclusive TFP is much smaller than the traditional TFP. Efficiency and technological progress have different degrees of decline. The traditional method overestimated China＇s TFP. The inclusive TFP growth rate in eastern region is higher than those of the central and western regions. Chinese economic growth is still relatively low in inclusiveness. The economic growth is more inclusive in eastern region than the central and western regions. Using panel data regression analysis model, we analyzed the influencing factors of inclusive economic growth. It reveals that the inclusive TFP growth has positive relationship with the utilization of foreign capital, factor structure, narrowing the income gap, urbanization, economic openness and infrastructure investment, while has negative relationship with the level of economic growth and industrial structure. Finally, the paper gets some meaningful policy implications.