房地产的预期评估研究

Research on expected appraisal on urban real estate

从城市各种规划对房地产市场参与主体决策行为的影响分析入手,构建了房地产价格的预期因素体系,通过对2000-2011年中国31个地区的实证研究,建立了包含先行因素、现实因素和预期因素的城市房地产预期评估模型。通过分析得出以下结论:建材价格对商品住宅价格具有三年的滞后正影响;居民收入和城镇化率对当期的商品住宅价格具有正影响,老年人口抚养比和地区经济水平对当期的商品住宅价格具有负影响,少年人口抚养比对商品住宅价格的影响不显著;收入增长预期、人口数量增长预期和森林覆盖率改善预期对商品住宅价格都具有提前的正影响,但提前期各不相同,分别为一年、三年和五年,城镇化发展预期对商品住宅价格具有提前五年的负影响,经济发展预期对商品住宅价格的影响不显著。

The expected factors system of real estate price is brought forward by analyzing the effect of various urban developmental planning on the decision - making behavior of real estate market participants. The expected appraisal model of urban real estate including leading factors, realistic factors and expected factors is constructed by empirical research on thirty - one provinces and autonomous regions. The conclusions show that material price has a three year lagged positive effect on commercial housing price, resident income and urbanization rate have a positive effect on commercial housing price at current period, aged -dependency ratio and regional economy have an negative effect on commercial housing price at current period, while the effect of child dependency ratio on commercial housing price is unobvious. Income growth expectation, population growth expectation and forest coverage rate increase expectation have an advanced positive effect on commercial housing price, whose advanced period is respectively one year, three year and five year. Rapid urbanization expectation has a five - year advanced negative effect on commercial housing price, and the effect of economy development expectation on commercial housing price is unobvious.