北京市低碳经济发展状况分析

An Analysis on the Development Situation of Low-carbon Economy in Beijing

对2005-2010年间北京市c02排放和碳强度进行了测算，并利用LMDI指数分解法对历年碳排放量和碳强度差异进行了因素分解。研究结果表明：（1）2005年到2010年北京市碳排放总量基本呈上升趋势，但能源强度和碳排放强度呈下降趋势；（2）北京市经济和人口增长是碳排放量增加的主要原因，节能减排的推进和能源消费结构的变化减缓了碳排放总量的增长速度；（3）产业部门能源强度因素和产业结构效应是北京市碳排放强度下降的主导因素，碳强度效应（即能源结构效应）对碳排放强度变动的降低效果不明显。

Beijing carbon emissions from 2005 to 2010 have been calculated in this paper using the method of＂Guidelines of Provincial Greenhouse Gas List＂ and the Beijing energy data. Beijing carbon emissions, carbon emissions constitution and carbon emissions intensity changing trend is analyzed in the paper and the influencing factors of the change are analyzed using LMDI index decomposition method. Study shows that： （1） From2005 to 2010 Beijing carbon emissions was rising, but energy intensity and carbon emissions intensity declined, proportion of low carbon emissions energy and the tertiary industry emissions also improved. （2） Beijing economic and population growth was the main reason for the increase of carbon emissions, energy conservation and emission reduction and the change of energy consumption structure slowed the growth of rate carbon emissions. （3） Industry department energy ~ntensity and industry structure effect were the dominant factors of Beijing carbon emissions intensity decline, effect of the carbon emission intensity effect （namely the energy structure effect） to reduce carbon emission intensity changes was not obvious.