农村电力系统负荷预测的研究——基于Excel回归模型

The Load Forecasting of Rural Power System——Based on Excel Regression Model

农村电力系统负荷预测是农村电网供电规划的基础。当利用回归模型进行农村电力系统负荷预测时,最大的问题是:当给定的历史数据量很大、回归模型未知数的最高次项的次数较高时,求解回归方程计算将变复杂。针对上述问题,提出了一种基于Excel的回归模型的求解方法,该方法无需编程,操作简单。计算结果表明,基于Excel的回归模型进行农村电力负荷预测的方法简单实用,误差较小。

Rural power system load forecasting is the basis of power planning of rural power grid. The biggest problem in the application of regression model in the load forecasting is that when the quantity of the given historical data is large, and regression model of unknown number of a supreme times are high, the solution of the regression equation would be- come complex. To solve the abovementioned problem, the regression model based on Excel was proposed, which required no programming, and was simple to be operated. The results of calculation prove that the method of regression model based on the Excel in the rural electric power load forecasting was simple and practical.