人口发展变化对区域消费影响的实证研究——基于中国省级区域的数据

An Empirical Study of the Impact of Demographic Factors on Regional Consumption:Based on China's Provincial Data

文章基于2000～2010年全国31个省、市、自治区的面板数据，通过建立PanelData模型对中国省级区域消费函数进行探究，研究综合的人口因素对区域消费的影响。结果显示在不同人口因素中，城镇化水平、人口受教育程度、外来人口流入率以及老龄化程度对区域消费的影响是显著的，也就是说人口因素作用在区域消费水平上的影响是显著的。除此之外，人口因素对不同地区的区域消费水平的影响程度存在差异，这种区域差异的状态是由区域间的人口效应的差异造成的。研究表明我国区域人口城镇化滞后发展阻碍区域消费内需扩大；教育水平参差不齐减缓区域消费模式优化；人口流动集聚效应带动区域消费水平提高，应当充分利用区域间年龄结构差异发挥区域消费优势。

This paper investigates the regional consumption function of China＇s provinces based on the panel data of 31 provinces from 2000 to 2010, in order to explore the effects of demographic factors on regional consumption. The results show that demographic variables such as the level of urbanization and schooling, the inflowing rate of external population, and the degree of aging have significant impact on the regional consumption. Apart from this, the influences of demographic factors on consumption vary from place to place, which is caused by the discrepancies of population effects among regions. Thus, we draw the conclusion： at the regional level, the lagged development of urbanization hinders the expansion of consumption and domestic demand ; the unevenness of educational level prevents the optimizing of consumption models ; the aggregation effect of transient population promotes the consumption level; and the full use of age structure unleashes the regional consumption advantages.