中国智利FTA贸易效应研究——基于巴拉萨模型的实证研究

An Empirical Research on the Trade Effect of China-Chile FTA Based on the Balassa Model

中国智利双边关系的发展在中国同拉美国家的发展史上具有重要意义。2005年,中国智利双方签署FTA。FTA的签署对中智双方会产生贸易创造和贸易转移两种效应。巴拉萨模型的分析表明,中国智利FTA对中国没有贸易创造效应而有净的贸易转移效应,对智利没有贸易转移效应而有净的贸易创造效应。导致这种结果的原因可能是双方进口比重和进口商品结构不同。中国应进一步加强同智利的贸易投资关系以及其他拉美国家的经济合作。

The development of China-Chile bilateral relations is of great significance in the history of the development of China with Latin American countries. China and Chile signed the FTA in 2005. The FTA will lead to two effects including trade creation effect and trade transfer effect on both sides. The analysis based on Balassa model shows：the China-Chile FTA has no trade creation effect but net trade diversion effect on China,and has no trade diversion effect but net trade creation effect on Chile. These results may he attributed to both the proportion of imports and import commodity structure. China should further strengthen trade and investment contacts with Chile and economic cooperation with other Latin American countries.