中国经济发展与生态环境的关系特征——基于省际面板数据的实证分析

The Relationship between Chinese Economic Development and Ecological Environment——An Empirical Research Based on Provincial Panel Data

经济发展与生态环境问题是全世界关注的热点问题,也是国内外学者研究的对象之一。本文基于对中国31个省份2003—2011年的经济统计和工业污染物的排放量的面板数据为基础,利用面板数据拟合方法进行拟合,分别建立了综合污染物、工业废气、工业固体废弃物以及工业废水等排放量对人均GDP变化的数量模型,并进行单位根检验和协整检验。拟合结果显示综合污染排放指数、工业废水、工业废气以及工业固体废弃物等排放量伴随着GDP的增长呈现出"倒N型"。这说明在经济发展初期阶段,环境质量随着经济的发展而变好,但是在经济发展到一定阶段之后,环境质量开始恶化,最后随着经济的进一步发展促使环境质量又再次回升。也表明中国31个省的经济增长与主要工业污染物排放量没有完全呈现出环境库兹尼茨曲线的倒U型特征。

Economic development and ecological environment is a hot topic around the world and also one of the object of scholars at home and abroad. This article establishes the models using the method of panel data based on the panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2003 to 2011 years about economic statistics and the emissions of industrial pollutants. Through the unit root test and co-integration test, this article establishes four models, the comprehensive pollution index, the industrial waste-water, the industrial gaseous waste and the industrial solid waste with per capita and its quadratic term、cubic term. The simulation result shows that all models are the type of inverted N. It shows that in the early time, the environmental quality becomes better with economic development, but when the economy goes to a certain stage of development, environmental quality becomes deteriorated, and finally with the further development of economic,the quality of the environment gets better. The result of data analysis indicated that, the economic growth of 31 province in China and the major industrial pollutant emissions didn't show inverted U shape feature of environmental Kuznets curve.