新疆地州经济发展的梯度化差异研究

A Study of Gradient Discrepancies of Economic Development in Regions and Prefectures in Xinjiang

新疆地域广袤,区域经济发展差异较大,区域经济的差异已影响到新疆经济社会的可持续发展。研究新疆地州经济的区域差异,并根据差异现状进行分组,有利于新疆根据地州经济的梯度类型制定相应的倾斜政策,争取相应的对口支援,以促进新疆经济社会的均衡发展。本文借助方差分析的方法,结合逐步回归的思想,按经济发展水平和经济增长状况将新疆各地州经济差异水平客观地划分为五个梯度。划分结果显示:27%的地区属于经济发展水平较高的地区,33%的地区属于经济增长较快的地区,53%的地区属既属于经济发展水平较低区域,又属于经济增长较慢的地区,也即新疆各地州经济发展水平整体偏低,发展的均衡性较差;从发展态势来看,新疆各地州梯度差异将进一步扩大,动态上虽然会有所调整,但调整的结果不会显著。

Regional economic development is quite different in Xinjiang because of its geographical advantages, which has affected its sustainable and stable development. The study of regional differences in economic development in Xinjiang and dividing them into gradient groups will be helpful for Xinjiang to formulate the favorable policy according to the gradient type of regional econo- my, striving for the corresponding pairing support and promote the balanced economic development in Xinjiang. The paper, by means of variance analysis, in combination with the idea of stepwise regression, divides the regional economy in Xinjiang into five gradient groups based on their economic discrepancies according to the significance of variance analysis. The division result shows that 27% regions＇ level of economic development is high, 33% regions＇ economic growth is rapid, 53% regions＇ s level of eco- nomic development is comparatively low and economic growth slow, namely, the economic development level is comparatively low and the development is not well - balanced ; from the perspective of the development trend, the discrepancies of the gradient in different regions and prefectures in Xinjiang will be further expanded and adjusted dynamically but its result will not be signifi- cant.