基于AHP层次分析法的沉船风险评估模型研究

Study of the shipwreck risk model by AHP Method

基于2003—2010年海难事故发生案例及海洋站实况资料,通过对历史事故的统计分析,综合考虑数据的可获取性及实时预报的可行性,识别出大风浪条件下沉船风险主要包括风向、风速、波向、波高、吨位和船型共6个影响因子。采用主观德尔菲法(Delphi Method)和客观的AHP层次分析法相结合,确定沉船风险预警指标体系及各指标的影响权重,基于模糊综合评判方法建立了沉船风险预警模型,并以典型海难事故进行验证,结果表明,应用该风险评估模型能明显刻画各海难事故的风险等级。因此该模型可用于有效地开展沉船风险预警,为相关海事决策部门提供参考,提前做好防范,有效减少事故发生概率。

Based on the case study on shipwrecks occurred between 2003 and 2010 and measured data from marine stations,and according to the statistical analysis of historical accidents and considerations of the accessibility of data and feasibility of real-time forecasting,this paper identified six factors of shipwreck risk under conditions of strong wind and huge wave,including wind direction,wind speed,wave direction,wave height,tonnage and ship type.With the combination of subjective Delphi method and Objective Analysis Hierarchy Process method,the article determined the shipwreck risk warning index system and weights for each indicator,and established the shipwreck risk warning model based on Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation method,which was validated by typical shipwrecks.The validation results showed that the risk warning model can accurately identify the risk level of each shipwreck.Therefore,the model can be applied to shipwrecks risk warning,and provides reference for relevant departments during decision-making process to prepare in reduces and reduces the possibility of the occurrence of marine accidents.