基于解释结构模型的LNG船舶进出港风险因素分析

Risk factor analysis on LNG carrier entering or leaving port based on interpretative structural modeling

为识别液化天然气(Liquefied Natural Gas,LNG)船舶进出港风险因素,建立LNG船舶进出港风险因素解释结构模型(Interpretative Structural Modeling,ISM).该方法从LNG船舶进出港全过程涉及的安全要素着手,由ISM专家小组确定16个风险因素;利用解释结构模型,建立风险因素的邻接矩阵和可达矩阵;将LNG船舶进出港的影响因素划分成6个层级.根据各因素之间的相互影响关系及不同层次之间的关系,分析LNG船舶进出港过程中存在的主要问题,对保障LNG船舶的航行提出安全措施建议.模型分析表明,该方法可以直观地把握对LNG船舶进出港作业产生影响的各因素的层次关系,可为有关部门保障LNG船舶进出港作业安全提供参考.

To identify the risk factors of entering or leaving port of Liquefied Natural Gas （LNG） carri- ers, an Interpretative Structural Modeling （ISM） for risk factors of LNG carrier entering or leaving port is built. Starting with safety factors relevant to the whole process of LNG carrier entering or leaving port, 16 affecting factors are determined by the ISM expert group; the adjacency matrix and the reachability matrix of risk factors are built by ISM ; the affecting factors are classified into 6 levels. Based on mutual relation- ships of these factors and different levels, the existing main problems are analyzed in the process of LNG carrier entering or leaving port and the safety measures are suggested to ensure safe navigation of LNG carriers. The analysis on the model shows that the method can intuitively grasp the hierarchical relations among the factors that affect the safety of LNG carrier entering or leaving port and provide reference for relevant departments to ensure the safety of LNG carrier entering or leaving port.