基于Choquet积分的非线性虫害预测

Non-linear Prediction of Insects Based on Choquet Integral

做好农作物的病虫害预测工作具有一定的经济意义,也是农业现代化的必要内容之一。病虫害的发生受到多方面因素的综合影响,这些因素所起的作用相互交织。新兴的模糊测度与模糊积分理论能较好地分析多因素的交互作用。将模糊测度和Choquet积分应用于虫害预测,建立非线性害虫预测数学模型,并对不同地域的金纹细蛾(Lithocolletis ringoniella)数据进行检测,结果表明该数学模型具有很好的预测效果。

Accurate predictions of insects in crops have economic sense and are necessary for agricultural modernization. The outbreak of insects is influenced by many factors interrelated and interacted on each other. As a new branch of mathematics, the fuzzy measure and fuzzy integral theory can be used to analyze the interaction among factors. A non-linear mathematical model is proposed for the prediction of insects based on fuzzy measure and Choquet integral. The model proposed is tested with data of Lithocolletis ringoniella from different areas. Results showed this model has good performance on prediction.