小麦白粉病灰色灾变预测研究

Studies on Forecasting Grey Disaster of Wheat Powdery Mildew

为了探索小麦白粉病预测的新方法,以灰色系统理论为基础,建立了小麦白粉病的灾变预测模型和灾变季节预测模型,灾变预测模型平均相对精度达到95.24%,建立的灾变季节模型包括达到防治指标日的预测模型和发病高峰日的预测模型,平均相对精度分别为90.40%和89.85%,模型精度较高。结果表明,3种模型均能够准确地预测小麦白粉病。

To explore a new forecast method of wheat powdery mildew, the disaster forecast model and disaster season fore- cast model of wheat powdery mildew were established based on grey system theory. The average relative precision of disaster forecast model reached 95.24%. The established disaster season forecast models included the forecast model of reaching con- trol indicator day and the forecast model of morbidity peak day with average relative precision of 90.40% and 89.85%, re- spectively. The forecast results indicated that the three models can forecast wheat powdery mildew accurately.