基于半更新过程的可修系统备件需求预测模型研究

Research on forecast model of spare part requirement for repairable system based on quasi-renewal progress

备件需求预测是维修管理工作的基础,精确的需求预测对提高设备的可用度和安全性、降低设备的寿命周期费用具有非常重要的影响。传统的更新假设下难以对备件需求进行准确的预测,容易造成资金浪费和物资积压。为提高可修系统的备件保障能力,对不完全维修条件下可修系统的备件需求预测问题进行研究,利用半更新理论建立备件需求预测模型。最后,结合实例验证了模型的有效性和可行性。

The spare part requirement forecast is the base of maintenance management. The exact requirement forecast an important approach to improve availability and safety of the equipments and reducing the life cycle cost of equipments. The spare part requirement are not exactly forecasted under the traditional renewal suppose, hence it easily cause waste of money and backlog of goods. To improve the ability of repairable system spare part supporting under the imperfect maintenance, researches on the spare part requirement forecast for the repairable systems under imperfect maintenance, provides the spare part requirement forecast models based on quasi-renewal theory and calculates the lower and upper bounds of system＇ s availability. Finally, an example reveals the efficiency and operability of the model.