发达经济体财政政策空间研究

The Limitation and the Spillover Effect of Macro Policy in Developed Economies

发达经济体复苏增长疲软是构成全球经济减速的重要原因,评估发达经济体财政政策空间有助于客观认识发达经济体乃至全球经济的发展态势,并为中国宏观经济政策调整提供重要依据。本文通过构建理论分析框架及实证分析表明,当前美欧日等发达经济体财政赤字已经偏离稳态水平,财政政策空间显著缩窄,由此倒逼央行推行量化宽松货币政策,量化宽松货币政策通过债务货币化拓展财政政策空间,但即使考虑金融危机期间超常规的量化宽松货币政策,当前美欧日财政政策仍然难以实现财政债务负担率的稳定,预示财政政策空间的缩窄。因此,美欧日等发达经济体扩张性财政货币政策可能推高系统性风险,对此,世界各国必须加强国际协调,降低发达经济体宏观经济政策负面溢出效应。

Based on the theoretical framework and empirical analysis,this paper shows that the developed economies such as United States,Europe and Japan,had deviated from the steady-state level of fiscal deficit,which forced the central bank to carry out the quantitative easing monetary policy. However,even considering financial crisis,the United States and Europe were still difficult to maintain financial debt burden rate stable,indicating that the macro-policy space has been greatly constricted. In this context, the United States and Europe and Japan continued to pursue the quantitative easing monetary policy,which would have a negative spillover effect. Research shows that,the developed economies through quantitative monetary policy caused the international reserve currency liquidity changes,which causing international capital flows,capital market and commodity prices fluctuating. According to this,the international coordination must be strengthened,and the developed economy should change the loosing economic policy to reduce negative spillover effect.